Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

Collaborative study to improve the quality control of rare earth element determinations in environmental matrices

In order to control the quality of rare earth determinations in environmental matrices, the Standards, Measurements and Testing Programme (formerly Community Bureau of Reference, BCR) of the European Commission has started a project, the final aim of which is to certify four types of matrices (tuna muscle, mussel tissue, aquatic plant and estuarine sediment) for their contents of a range of rare earth elements (Sc, Y and the lanthanides: La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb and Lu). The elements U and Th were added to the study. The first part of this project consisted of an interlaboratory study which aimed to test the feasibility of preparation of environmental reference materials and to detect and remove most of the pitfalls observed in rare earth determinations. This paper presents the preparation of the four matrices for the intercomparison study and for the candidate reference material. The main results are presented of the interlaboratory study that was carried out prior to the certification campaign. This collaborative trial is the first attempt ever carried out at this scale to evaluate the state-of-the-art of rare earth determinations in the environment. Its impact on the improvement of chemical measurements will have positive effects on the comparability of data necessary for environmental monitoring.     

A Global Overview of Atmospheric Acid Deposition Fluxes

This paper presents a summary of globalacid deposition flux data taken from a globalassessment report on acid deposition prepared forUNEP/WMO (Whelpdale and Kaiser, 1996). There is a largevariation in the spacial coverage and reliability ofmonitoring around the world. Many more stationsmeasure wet deposition than collect appropriate datafor estimating dry deposition. The widespread regionswith highest precipitation concentrations anddeposition fluxes of sulphate and nitrate coincideclosely with the regions of highest density ofSO₂ and NO_x precursor emissions occurringprimarily in the mid-latitude, northern hemispherebelt where a large fraction of the worlds fossilfuels is consumed. Organic acids in precipitation makea minor contribution to acidity (<20%) inindustrial regions, but in the rest of the world theyare of same order, or even exceed, inorganic acids.Less is known about dry deposition, but it appears topredominate near strong emission sources with wetdeposition predominating farther downwind. The molarratio of the N/S contribution to acidic deposition isclose to 1.0 over large areas of Europe and NorthAmerica, but is highly variable elsewhere, beinghighest in equatorial regions due to biomass burningand lowest near smelters and other large sources of SO₂.     

Documentation of cumulative impacts in environmental impact statements

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969 and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations in the United States require federal agencies to apply an environmental impact assessment (EIA) in decision-making related to their actions. One aspect requires an examination of direct, indirect and cumulative impacts (CIs). Historically, cumulative impact assessment (CIA) has been given limited attention in EIA and resultant environmental impact statements (EISs), not because of its lack of importance, but owing to limitations in methodologies and procedures, including documentation consistency. The objectives of this study were to identify deficiencies in the documentation of CIs and CIA in EISs and to formulate appropriate recommendations (potential solutions) related to such deficiencies. The study involved the systematic review of 33 EISs (11 each from the U.S. Department of Agriculture: Forest Service, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Department of Transportation: Federal Highway Administration). The results indicate that improvements have been made in documentation practices since 1990; however, inconsistencies and inadequacies still exist. Therefore, the following recommendations were developed: (1) CIs should be reported in a separate part of the “Environmental Consequences” section, and they should be addressed for each pertinent environmental resource; (2) a summary of CIs should be included; (3) any CIs considered not significant should be mentioned plus the reason(s) for their non-significance; (4) spatial and temporal boundaries addressed within the CIA process should be defined for pertinent environmental resources; and (5) utilized guidelines and methodologies should be described.     

Young northern pike,yellow perch and crayfish as bioindicators in a mercury contaminated watercourse

Young-of-the-year and yearling northern pike (Esox lucius), yearling yellow perch (Perca flavescens) and adult crayfish (Orconectes virilis) were collected in the mercury-contaminated Wabigoon/English/Winnipeg River System, Ontario, and analyzed for total mercury. Analysis of mercury concentrations in these organisms produced consistent geographical trends; i.e. mercury concentrations in biota downstream of Dryden > English River system > Winnipeg River system > control sites. In the Wabigoon River system the bioavailability of mercury increases with distance downstream of the historical point source. Mercury concentrations in the biota studied were highly correlated with mercury concentrations in fish species which are of sport and commercial interest. The locations where young fish obtain their bodyburdens are known typically within 100 m. The biota studied compare favourably with the criteria proposed by Phillips (1980) as prerequisites for biological indicators. The wide distribution of young pike, perch and crayfish in North America, Europe and Asia may enhance their appeal as biomonitors.The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. No endorsement should be inferred.     

Spatial analysis and mapping the annual mean concentrations of acidity and major ions in precipitation over the United Kingdom in 1986

The composition of precipitation is being monitored in collectors sited throughout the United Kingdom. In the first year, 1986, hydrogen ion, nitrate, ammonium and non-marine sulphate were measured in samples from 47 sites and annual mean concentrations determined. Spatial analysis based on Regionalized Variable Theory revealed autocorrelation in all four ions and reasonable bounded models were fitted to the sample variogram of all four. These were then used to estimate values of a fine mesh grid by simple kriging, and the estimates were then contoured. The estimation errors were similarly mapped, and both sets of maps are presented. The maps show that concentrations of these ions are greatest in eastern parts of the country, as expected from consideration of European emissions and weather patterns. For the first time estimation errors were also mapped and show how the network could be improved.     

Excrement from Heron colonies for environmental assessment of toxic elements

Excrement cast from Great Blue Heron nests was collected during the nesting period of 1978 from four colonies in Washington and Idaho. Cheesecloth strips placed on the ground beneath the nests served as excrement collecting devices. Chemical analysis for lead, mercury and cadmium were performed on dried samples. Lead was the most abundant trace metal found in heron debris. The Idaho colony at Lake Chatcolet had an average concentration of 46 ppm in the beneath-nest samples and 6 ppm in control samples. A heron colony near Tacoma, Washington had beneath-nest samples averaging 28 ppm and control samples averaging 20 ppm. Two colonies located in the interior region of Washington had substantially lower concentrations of lead. The difference observed between colonies was attributed to their associations with a polluted watershed (Chatcolet colony) an interstate highway (Tacoma colony) and an unpopulated largely agricultural area (inland Washington).     

Strontium-90 in Canada goose eggshells and reed canary grass from the Columbia River,Washington

Strontium-90 (⁹⁰SR) released to the ground near the N Reactor at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site enters the Columbia River through shoreline seeps. The ⁹⁰Sr is then potentially available for uptake by plants and animals. The life history and foraging behavior of nesting Canada geese is such that female geese could ingest ⁹⁰Sr while foraging on shoreline plants. Radichemical analyses showed that goose eggshells taken from an island, downstream from the N Reactor, contained more ⁹⁰Sr than did eggshells collected from other downstream islands. Reed canary grass samples taken from shoreline areas immediately downstream from the N Reactor contained higher concentrations of ⁹⁰Sr than samples from other downstream areas. All goose eggshells did not contain enhanced levels of ⁹⁰Sr, and all reed canary grass samples did not contain enhanced levels of ⁹⁰Sr, but a relationship exists between the releases of ⁹⁰Sr to the Columbia River and the enhanced levels of ⁹⁰Sr in some of the environmental samples analyzed.Pacific Northwest Laboratory is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute for the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-ACO6-76RLO 1830.     

Survey of the occurrence of residues of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) in Dutch drinking water sources and drinking water

An indicative survey has been carried out in The Netherlands investigating the presence of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) in drinking water and the corresponding sources. In total, 71 different sites used for the preparation of drinking water in The Netherlands were sampled in two successive seasons in 2001 involving the analysis of 156 samples. (ground water (n = 88), surface water (n = 17), bank filtrate water (n = 6) and drinking water (n = 45)). To combine high sample throughput with high selectivity and sensitivity, off-line purge and trap for sampling and gas chromatography mass spectrometry equipped with an automated thermal desorption sampler (TDS-GC-MS) was selected as the preferred analytical methodology. The developed procedure enabled the analysis of at least 40 samples per day and provided a limit of quantification of 2 ng l(-1). In the first period 63 samples of raw water were analyzed. Concentrations ranged between < 10 ng l(-1) and 420 ng l(-1) with a median concentration below 10 ng l(-1). The second period was focused at the re-sampling of positive locations (MTBE > 10 ng l(-1)) and a few additional drinking water utilities of which both the raw and drinking water of the utilities were analyzed. The median concentration of MTBE in the selected set of drinking water samples was 20 ng l(-1) (n = 45). At one location MTBE was found at a level of 2900 ng l(-1) caused by point source contamination of the ground water (11 900 ng l(-1)). Special attention has been paid to the quality of the results by analyzing all samples in duplicate and the analysis of control samples during each series of analyses.     

Environmental monitoring of historical change in arsenic deposition with tree bark pockets

ICP-MS analysis recorded historical change (c. 1846 to 2002) in the arsenic concentration of bark included within the trunks (tree bark pockets) of two Japanese oak trees (Quercus crispula), collected at an elevated location approximately 10 km from the Ashio copper mine and smelter, Japan. The arsenic concentration of the bark pockets was 0.016 +/- 0.003 microg cm(-2) c. 1846 (n = 5) and rose 50-fold from c. 1875 to c. 1925, from approximately 0.01 to 0.5 microg cm(-2). The rise coincided with increased copper production in Ashio from local sulfide ores, from 46 tons per year in 1877 to 16,500 tons per year in 1929. Following a decline in arsenic concentration and copper production, in particular during the Second World War, a second peak was observed c. 1970, corresponding to high levels of production from both local (6,000 tons per year) and imported (30,000 tons per year) ores, smelted from 1954. Compared to the local ores, the contribution of arsenic from imported ores appeared relatively low. Arsenic concentrations declined from c. 1970 to the present following the closure of the mine in 1974 and smelter in 1989, recording 0.058 +/- 0.040 microg cm(-2) arsenic (n = 5) in surface bark collected in 2002. The coincident trends in arsenic concentration and copper production indicated that the bark pockets provided an effective record of historical change in atmospheric arsenic deposition.